五力分析模型

宏观环境是企业赖以生产的基础，对宏观环境的正确把握不仅会影响到企业发展的一般性问题，更是影响着企业发展方向的战略问题。

一、 政治环境分析

香港有关政策表明支持节能环保型小排量的汽车生产和销售，对于生产小型车的企业来说，可以充分利用政府

五力分析模型是迈克尔·波特(Michael Porter)于80年代初提出，对企业战略制定产生全球性的深远影响。用于竞争战略的分析，可以有效的分析客户的竞争环境。波特五力分析属于外部环境中的微观环境分析，主要用来分析本行业的企业竞争格局以及本行业与其他行业之间的关系。in the 80 s , Michael Porter put forward five forces model, which have profound impact on the global enterprise strategy. It used for the analysis of the competition strategy, and can effectivly analyse customer competition environment. Potter five forces analysis belongs to the micro environmental analysis of the external environment, it mainly used to analyse the enterprise competition pattern in the industry and the relationship between the industry and other industries.

一个行业中的竞争，不止是在原有竞争对手中进行，而是存在五种基本的竞争力量： 供应商的讨价还价能力、购买者的讨价还价能力、潜在竞争者进入的能力、替代品的替代能力、行业内竞争者现在的竞争能力。五种力量的不同组合变化 最终影响行业利润潜力变化。A competition in the industry not just compete with the original competitors, but compete with five basic competitive power: the bargaining ability of supplier, bargaining ability of buyers, ability of potential rivals, substitution ability of

substitutes in the industry, competitors ability of the industry. The change of five strength of different combination will ultimately affect potential changes of the industry profit.

这五种基本竞争力量的状况及综合强度决定着行业的竞争激烈程度，从而决定着行业中最终的获利潜力以及资本向本行业的流向程度，这一切最终决定着企业保持高收益的能力，一种可行策略的提出首先应该包括确认并评价这五种力量，不同力量的特性和重要性因行业和公司的不同而变化，波特的竞争力模型的意义在于五种竞争力量的抗争中蕴含着三类成功的战略思想，总成本领先战略，差异化战略，专一化战略。the status and comprehensive strength of the five basic competitive power decided to the industry competitive level, and then decide finally earnings potential of the industry and the flow degree of capital to the industry, all this eventually determines the ability of the enterprise to maintain a high income, a feasible strategy proposed should include identify and evaluate the five kind of strength, the different characteristics and importance of five power would changed with industry and the company, the model significance lies in five competitive forces contain three successful strategic thought, total cost leadership strategy, the differentiation strategy, strategic focus strategy.

随着国际汽车市场的连续快速增长和总规模的不断扩大，汽车市场已经成为推动全球经济增长的主要力量。本文用五力模型来分析一下汽车行业及其领域内的战略方针。

1．供给商的讨价还价能力

供方主要通过其提高投入要素价格与降低单位价值质量的能力，来影响行业中现有企

业的盈利能力与产品竞争力。供方力量的强弱主要取决于他们所提供给买主的是什么投入要素，

Along with the international automobile market contently and rapidly growth, total scale contently expands, auto market has become the main strength driving global growth. This essay uses the five forces model to analyze the car industry and the strategic policy in the field.

1. The supplier's bargaining power

The supplier is mainly through its input elements and reduce prices improve the quality of the unit value of ability to influence the existing enterprise profitability and competitive products in the industry. The intensity of supplier power depends on what they have to offer to the purchaser.

目前局势来看，美国汽车市场不仅成为通用，本田，丰田，福特等对世界汽车市场有重大影响的跨国公司的战略市场，同时，这些公司已将美国作为其全球战略的重要的组成部分。由此可见波特五力模型中的成本领先战略已经被各大汽车公司悄无声息地运作起来了，with the present situation, the American auto market has become strategy market for the multinational company ,such as Honda ,Toyota, F ord and so on .at the same time ,the companies has make the car market of the world have a major impact on the of, and at the same time, these companies have make the United States as the important component parts of global strategy. This shows cost leadership strategy has been quietly operated up for the major automotive company.

在美国建造生产基地，这样明显降低了成本、人力、运输费用等，同时也面临着许多客观问题降低了购买者讨价还价的能力，供应商主要通过其提高投入要素价格与降低单位价值质量的能力，来影响行业中现有企业的盈利能力与产品竞争力。当供应商所提供的投入要素价值构成了买方产品总成本的较大比列，对买方产品生产过程非常重要，或者严重影响买方产品的质量时，供应商对于买方的讨价还价的力量就增强了。很多汽车够加大了美国市场战略部署， it significantly lowered the cost, labor and transportation expenses, and so on to build production base in the United States, it also faces many objective problem ,for example ,it reduces the buyers bargaining power, suppliers mainly through improve its input elements prices and reduce the unit value of the quality to influence the existing enterprise profitability and competitive products in the industry. When supplier provide the input elements value constitute the larger part of the total cost of product, it is very important for the product production process, or serious influence the quality of the product, the supplier bargaining strength is enhanced to the buyer. A lot of car companies enhance the strategy in the United States market.

例如：福特汽车公司未来在美国将不断加强投进与合作力度，争取取得轿车市场10%的占有率，生产能力将实现从原有的四万辆达到40万辆的巨大转变，并实现大部分车辆生产本地化。福特汽车公司全球生产布局显示，除亚洲本土外，北美地区(特别是美国)和亚洲地区(特别是中国)是丰田在海外投资最大的地区。For example, Ford motor company will strengthen cooperation and efforts to cast in order to get a 10% share of the car market in the United States in the future, production capacity will be realized great changes from the original forty thousand cars to 400000 cars, and achieve most of the vehicle production localization. Ford motor company global production layout shows in addition to outside Asia, North America (especially in

the us) and the Asian area (especially China) is the largest investment the for Ford .

美国和中国已经成为福特主要的生产基地，福特公司的总体市场目标是到2012年在美国国拥有10%的市场份额。以汽车生产销售为中心，通过制造、服务、金融等汽车相关产业的扩大,来达到2010年200亿美元的销售目标；此外，现代还计划进军中国的商用车市场，有可能与其他汽车公司携手建立商用车生产基地，计划在2013年前形成年产五万台小型商用车发动机、一万辆客车和九万辆货车的生产能力。世界各汽车零配件行业巨头,也纷纷做出了增资美国的计划。因而供应商讨价还价的能力也在逐步减弱。The United States and China have become the main production base of ford, the general market goal is having 10% of the market in the United States in 2012. For car production sales as the center, it reach $20 billion sales target through the manufacturing, services, financial, and related auto industry expand; In addition, the Ford also plans to tap into China's commercial vehicle market, there may be hand in hand with other car company to establish commercial vehicle production base, it plan formed fifty thousand sets of small commercial vehicle engine, ten thousand vehicles, and ninety thousand van production capacity in the annual output in 2013 years. The world auto parts industry giants have also made the capital plan invest to America. So the bargaining power of suppliers also gradually decreases.

目前局势来看，我国汽车市场不仅成为大众、通用、本田、现代等在中国已经具有重大影响的跨国公司的战略市场，现代汽车公司已将中国作为其全球战略的重要组成部分，计划到2010年乘用车在华产能达到100万辆，使中国成为其四大海外工厂中仅次于印度的第二大海外工厂；同时，

由此可见波特五力模型中的本钱领先战略已经被各大汽车公司消无生息的运作开了，在中国建造生产基地，按国情来看无疑降低了本钱、人力、运输用度，大大降低了本钱，同时也面对着很多客观题目降低了购买者讨价还价的负面影响。供方主要通过其进步投进要素价格与降低单位价值质量的能力，来影响行业中现有企业的盈利能力与产品竞争力。进口汽车供方气力的强弱主要取决于他们所提供给买主的是什么投进要素，当供方所提供的投进要素其价值构成了买主产品总本钱的较大比例、对买主产品生产过程非常重要、或者严重影响买主产品的质量时，供方对于买主的潜伏讨价还价气力就大大增强。

2．购买者的讨价还价能力

购买者主要通过其压价与要求提供较高的产品或服务质量的能力，来影响行业中现有企业的盈利能力。汽车在国内的卖方行业由大量相对外资企业来说规模较小的企业所组成，这些企业的市场价明显低于原装进口汽车，仅仅由于madeinChina?还有更多的可能是一种低价位符合国情的亲众的营销策略。

在中国发达地区，如北京、上海等城市购买者所购买的基本上是一种标准化产品，同时向多个卖主购买产品在经济上也完全可行。这就对每个产品产生了购买方分流，并会处于同时被几家竞争对手比较的局面。这就形成了购买者有能力实现後向一体化，而卖主不可能前向一体化的潜伏市场不利因素。进步了购买者讨价还价能力，国产轿车价格仍将有一定幅度的下降。假如没有人民币的大幅度升值，进口轿车价格下降对国产轿车的价格压力已经很小，2006年引起国产轿车价格下降的主要动力来自于国内厂商之间的竞争，从根本上讲是产能过剩导致的供过于求。但是产能过剩并不一定直接带来价格下降，如美国、亚洲等国家汽车产业普遍存在产能过剩的题目，而这些国家的轿车价格不仅没有下降，反而在逐年缓慢上涨。之所以判定2008年国产轿车价格将继续出现一定幅度的下降，主要是目前我国轿车市场运行中既有价格下降的必要性,又存在价格下降的现实可能性。

其次，汽车零部件均匀关税下降人民币升值压力将有利于进口车价的下调。2005年7月份人民币对美元的汇率一次性升值2%，之后的半年时间内人民币对美元的汇率又升值了0.44%，2007年现在已经突破7.5关口，而且人民币升值的压力继续存在。假如2008年人民币继续小幅度升值，将直接促成进口车本钱的下降。有利于国人购买力的进步，被动进步了我们讨价还价能力。同时也让合资企业从中大赚了一笔。

3．新进进者的威胁

进入的威胁取决于市场中进入壁垒存在的程度。进入壁垒是那些想成功进行竞争的新进入者所必需克服的障碍。进入壁垒通常会延缓潜在进入者进入市场的时机，但不会构成永久的障碍，另外，进入壁垒可能会阻止很多潜在的进入者，但不是全部。进入壁垒通常包括：规模经济、资金限制、分销渠道要求、经验、预期的报复、立法或政府行为以及差异化等。汽车行业是一个非常成熟的产业，自1890年以来，已有100多年的历史，而福特汽车公司更是该行业的鼻祖之一，然而汽车行业本身的不断演化、改进和创新，使该行业并为因为历史的悠久而走向衰退。汽车产业有较高的技术含量，其经验曲线较平坦，需要很长的学习时间。产业壁垒高，汽车行业是一个投资规模巨大，进入和退出成本及障碍都很高的行业，另外汽车行业一般都是一个国家的重点支柱产业，国家或者地方政府都会扶持民族或地方产业而限制其它进入者。由于进入、退出成本和障碍都很高，因此现有竞争者的报复和竞争都很强烈，汽车产业后进进中国市场的大跨国公司急于追赶与扩张，在价格上寻求竞争力。福特公司作为全球第二大汽车厂商，目前在中国的发展状况与其地位很不相当，从2005年开始明显加大了在中国市场的运作力度，福克斯的最低价为12.8万元，作为一款欧美车型很有竞争力，销量增长迅速。丰田汽车公司也适当改变了做法，在稳步推进的主旋律中加快了步伐。2005年年初花冠、威驰降价只是起步，有竞争力的新产品还将不断推出，价格也更具竞争力。新进进者在给行业带来新生产能力、新资源的同时，将希看在已被现有企业瓜分完毕的市场中赢得一席之地，这就有可能会与现有企业发生原

材料与市场份额的竞争，终极导致行业中现有企业盈利水平降低，严重的话还有可能危及这些企业的生存。竞争性进进威胁的严重程度取决于两方面的因素，这就是进进新领域的障碍大小与预期现有企业对于进进者的反应情况。

有竞争力的新产品上市，而且惯例是以有杀伤力的价格切进市场。本田将于2006年推出“思域”，本田在产品战略上一贯坚持“产品定价要一步到位”的策略，雅阁、飞度、CRV等车型的上市均采取了这样的策略，有理由相信本田将以有竞争力的价格推出“思域”。另外马自达的新M3于2006年上市，而且是由福特公司同一运作。福特公司从2005年开始明显是在运用价格手段来获取竞争力以尽快扩大市场份额。

潜伏的行业新进进者是行业竞争的一种重要气力，这些新进进者大都拥有新的生产能力和某些必须的资源，期待能建立有利的市场地位。新进者加进该行业，会带来生产能力的扩大，带来对市场占有率的要求，这必然引起与现有企业的激烈竞争，使产品价格下跌；另一方面，新加进者要获得资源进行生产，从而可能使得行业生产本钱升高，这两方面都会导致行业的获利能力下降the new competition in the industry is one of the important strength, the new recruits who have mostly have new production capacity and some of the necessary resources look forward to establish favorable market position. The new competition added into the industry, would bring the expansion of production capacity, with the requirements of the market share, it must cause the fierce competition with existing enterprise, make the product prices drop; On the other hand, the new competition added to obtain resources for production, which may make the industry production increased capital, the two strength will lead to industry profit ability.

4．替换品的威胁

几乎任何产品都有自己的替代产品，只不过替代的程度不同而已，这些替代品也最大限度的保证着任何垄断行业都不可能把产品的价格无限扩大Almost any products has its own alternative products, those alternatives products also ensure any monopoly industries are not likely to take the price of the product enlarged unlimitedly两个处于不同行业中的企业，可能会由于所生产的产品是互为替换品，从而在它们之间产生相互竞争行为，这种源自于替换品的竞争会以各种形式影响行业中现有企业的竞争战略。本行业与生产替换产品的其它行业进行的竞争，经常需要本行业所有企业采取共同措施和集体行动。Two enterprises in different industrymay be because the products is the replacements for each other, thus it form competition with each other, the competition which originated the replacements will influence in various forms of the existing enterprise industry competition strategy. 首先，现有企业产品售价以及获利潜力的提高，将由于存在着能被用户方便接受的替代品而受到限制；第二，由于替代品生产者的侵入，使得现有企业必须提高产品质量、或者通过降低成本来降低售价、或者使其产品具有特色，否则其销量与利润增长的目标就有可能受挫；First of all, the existing enterprise product price and profit potential increase would limitedbecause of the substitutes that user eaily accept ; Second, because of the invasion of the substitute producers, it make the existing enterprise must improve product quality, reduce cost or through to reduce price, or make their products with characteristics, or its sales and profit growth target may setbacks;

第三，源自替代品生产者的竞争强度，受产品买主转换成本高低的影响。总之，替代品价格越低、质量越好、用户转换成本越低，其所能产生的竞争压力就强；而这种来自替代品生产者的竞争压力的强度，可以具体通过考察替代品销售增长率、替代品厂家生产能力与盈利扩张情况来加以描述Third, from competition intensity of substitute producers, the product effected by high and low conversion cost. In short,

substitute have the lower price, the better quality, and the user switching costs lower, it can produce strong pressure of competition; And the pressure of competition from substitute producers can describe through the investigation of substitute sales growth rates, substitute manufacturer production capacity and profit expansion .

The competition between the industry and other industry which produce replace products often need to all enterprises in the same industry take common measures and collective action.

全球汽车业目前面临的最大挑战就是研发价格合适且款式吸引人的环保型汽车。汽车的主要替代品有：摩托车、自行车、火车、地铁、飞机、轮船等。以上交通、运输工具虽具有一定的替代效果，但是各有自己的特殊用途和功能以满足特定的客户需求，因此并不具有完全替代的效果，汽车被替代的威胁比较小。At present, the biggest challenges that Global car industry has to face are the research and development of the right price and design attractive environment-friendly cars. The main substitutes for car include motorcycle, bicycle, train, subway, aircraft, ships, and so on. Though the traffic and transportation tool has certain alternative effect, each has its own special purposes and functions to meet the specific needs of clients, and therefore, it do not have completely alternative effect, car replaced threat is small.

2007年7月通用汽车公司（GeneralMotorsCorp）称，它与蓬斯克公司(PenskeCorp.)达成一项合资协议，将购买意大利柴油发动机生产商VMMotori50%的股票。公司没有透露这笔交易的金额。通用汽车称，它将与VMMotori联合开发新型2.9升，V-6涡轮柴油机。VMMotori将于2009年在欧洲启动其CadilacCTS，并且计划在意大利Cento的工

厂建立新的部分。据通用副主席BobLutz说，通用将于2010年美国市场，在凯迪拉克和土星系列中选配高燃油经济性的柴油机。柴油机将用在通用的轿车，Crossover和轻卡上。一系列的产品计划及新能源的开发应用都将验证通用汽车作为汽车行业领先者为现实（被和谐）发展的目标所作出的卓尽努力。

日前，通用汽车欧洲公司发布了全新的环境战略，短期内将以降低二氧化碳排放量为主要目标，而长期的目标则是通过新技术的应用终极实现零排放，实现汽车与自然环境（被和谐）发展。首先，现有企业产品售价以及获利潜力的进步，将由于存在着能被用户方便接受的替换品而受到限制；at present, the Ford motors Europe company released new environmental strategy, the short-term is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and long-term goal is through the application of new technology ultimate realize zero emissions, realize the car and natural environment (harmony) development. First of all, the existing enterprise product price and the progress of the earnings potential would limit, because there exist replacements that can be convenient for users to accept.

通用汽车在此次全新环境战略中公布：将以进步内燃机效率及多样化能源利用为手段，降低二氧化碳排放。由于替换品生产者的侵进，使得现有企业必须进步产品质量、或者通过降低本钱来降低售价、或者使其产品具有特色，否则其销量与利润增长的目标就有可能受挫；通用汽车已投资超过10亿美元用于氢能源技术的开发与应用。目前，通用汽车的氢能源战略已走出实验室，开始在各种车型上进行实践，其终纵目标正是实现燃料电池的量产。In the new environment strategy, Ford motors announced that they will make internal combustion engine efficiency and energy utilization diverse as the means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Because the replacements producers, it make the existing enterprise improve product quality, or through the lower capital to

reduce price, or make their products with characteristics, or its sales and profit growth target may setbacks; Ford motors has invested more than $1 billion for hydrogen energy technology development and application. At present, Ford motors hydrogen energy strategy has walked out of the lab, began to practice on the all sorts of model, the target is to realise fuel cell mass production.

总之，替换品价格越低、质量越好、用户转换本钱越低，其所能产生的竞争压力就强；而这种来自替换品生产者的竞争压力的强度，可以具体通过考察替换品销售增长率、替换品厂家生产能力与盈利扩张情况来加以描述。

5．行业内现有竞争者的竞争

大部分行业中的企业，相互之间的利益都是紧密联系在一起的，作为汽车企业整体战略一部分的各企业竞争战略，其目标都在于使得自己的企业获得相对于竞争对手的上风，所以，在实施中就必然会产生冲突与对抗现象，这些冲突与对抗就构成了现有企业之间的竞争。现有企业之间的竞争经常表现在价格、广告、产品先容、售後服务等方面，其竞争强度与很多因素有关。Most of the companies in industries, the mutual interests are closely linked, as part of the overall strategy for automobile enterprises, the goal of enterprise competition strategy is to make their enterprises to gain the relative advantage for the competition, so, in the implementation, it may have the inevitable conflict and confrontation phenomenon, these conflict and confrontation constitutes the existing competition among enterprises. Existing competition between enterprises often show in price, advertising, after-sales service and so on, the competition strength affect by many factors.

整个汽车市场的竞争是现代商业市场中竞争最为激烈的市场之一，主要趋势有：产品开发，全球化，水平整合为策略方向，各大汽车厂商都在竞争开发新型、新款式新技术的汽车来争夺新的市场，渗透现在的市场，并且都以速度、低成本、高附加值为基础。各厂商都因为固定成本高，要通过提高市场占有率，扩大产量和规模来降低成本，The whole car market competition is one of the most competitive market in modern commercial market, the main trend show that product development, market globalization, the level integration make the policy direction, many big car factory develop new style new technology product to compete for new car market, and the same time ,they penetrate the present market, with speed, low cost and high added value for the foundation. Because many company providers have high fixed costs, they must reduce costs through increased market share, expand production scale in order to improve competitiveness, make car market appear serious supply phenomenon.

以提高竞争力，使汽车市场出现严重的供大于求的现象，以轿车市场来说，全球产量近7000万辆，而销售量不到6000万辆。各大商家现在以合并和联盟为最重要的方式，各大厂商为追求规模经济，扩大市场占有率，共享资源以取得竞争优势，互相寻求合并与联盟，比如说，福特收购volvo。in the cars market, global production nearly 70 million cars, and less than 60 million car sales. Many businessmen make the merge and alliance way as the most important way; many big manufacturers pursue economies of scale, and expand the market share and share the resources in order to obtain competitive advantage with each other, to achieve merger and alliance .For example, Ford takeover Volvo.

对于整个汽车行业，福特汽车公司面临着来自日本、欧洲、美国还有韩国等第三世界国家的许多汽车公司的激烈竞争，主要的竞争者有：美国的GM，，DaimlerChrysler，欧

洲的BMW，Fiat ,Volkswagen，Renault，日本的Honda，Nissan，Toyota，For the whole car industry, Ford motor company faces many car company's fierce competition from Japan, Europe, the United States and South Korea and other countries of the third world, the main competitors are: GM, DaimlerChrysler in American, BMW, Fiat, Volkswagen, Renault in European, Honda and Nissan, Toyota in Japan.

经过多年积累，品牌竞争得到了全面提升，预示着汽车产业以两种方式推动经济发展(推动GDP增长和推动出口产品结构升级)。但是由于世界经济危机的影响，汽车总体市场出现滑坡，品牌受影响更大。然而，经过品牌企业自身的艰苦努力和国家相关政策支持，自主品牌的竞争得到了全面提升，After accumulation for many years , brand competition got to raise in the world , it indicates that the auto industry will promote economic development in two ways (push GDP growth and promote the upgrade of export product structure). But as the world economic crisis, car overall market appear landslide, brand affected even more. However, after a brand enterprise itself of hard work and relevant national policy support, the independent brand competition got to raise .

以奇瑞为代表的自主品牌销量大幅度增长。由于自主品牌的发展，我国汽车产业的出口能力明显增强，多年来汽车进口大于出口的局面在2005年首次得到扭转。2005年l～10月份汽车产业累计出口162.6亿美元，同比增长55.67%，汽车业累计进口120.8亿美元，同比下降5.52%，出口大于进口42亿美元。2005年1～11月份汽车累计出口量达到13万辆，累计进口量为12.8万辆，出口数目首次大于进口数目。几个自主品牌，如奇瑞、吉祥等都有较大量的出口。

结论

伴随着汽车市场竞争广度和深度的进一步拓展，企业之间的竞争已经超越了经营效率竞争的层面。有竞争力的企业，不仅在整个业务链上都有创造性，而且，其品牌和产品都有明确的用户定位，所提供的产品和服务让用户感到物有所值。汽车行业中的每一个企业或多或少都必须应付以上各种力量构成的威胁，而且客户必面对行业中的每一个竞争者的举动。除非认为正面交锋有必要而且有益处，例如要求得到很大的市场份额，否则客户可以通过设置进入壁垒，包括差异化和转换成本来保护自己。根据上面对于五种竞争力量的讨论，我认为企业可以采取尽可能地将自身的经营与竞争力量隔绝开来、努力从自身利益需要出发影响行业竞争规则、先占领有利的市场地位再发起进攻性竞争行动等手段来对付这五种竞争力量，以增强自己的市场地位与竞争实力。